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Maria Alice Maia
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New Method: Using Multiple Outcomes (TMO) to Adjust Standard Errors for Spatial Correlation
Are You Confident in Your Data? Or Just Dangerously Wrong? Imagine you’re a leader at a major retail chain. You’ve just rolled out a new...
Maria Alice Maia
Jun 23, 20254 min read
A New Touchpoint and Next Steps for our Data Science Insights
Nine months ago, I started this project with a simple, urgent mission: to fix how we use data in business. We began with a deep dive into...
Maria Alice Maia
Apr 7, 20252 min read
Synthetic Controls & Beyond: Your Questions on Single-Case Causal Inference
The response to last week's post on the Synthetic Control Method was incredible. The questions flooding my inbox and past week's...
Maria Alice Maia
Mar 31, 20253 min read
Expanding the Causal Toolkit | New Method: Synthetic Control Method (SCM) - Feasibility & Requirements
What was the ROI of that massive Olympics ad campaign? Or the real impact of your new flagship store? When you make a huge, one-of-a-kind...
Maria Alice Maia
Mar 24, 20253 min read
Revisiting Randomized Experiments: A Comparison Point
Everyone loves to call Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) the “gold standard” for measuring impact. But is the gold standard always the...
Maria Alice Maia
Mar 17, 20253 min read
Case Study: Conditional Cash Transfers & Children's Outcomes using an RCT
You’re spending millions on programs, but can you prove they actually work? I’m not talking about pretty dashboards showing a “before...
Maria Alice Maia
Mar 10, 20253 min read
From Research to ROI: New Topic - Pre-Analysis Plans (PAPs) & Credibility in Causal Inference
Your consulting team just delivered a brilliant, data-driven insight that will change your strategy. But did they find the truth, or did...
Maria Alice Maia
Mar 3, 20252 min read
From Research to ROI: New Method -Longitudinal Data and the Estimation of Dynamic Treatment Effects
Your new loyalty program launched six months ago. You know the one-month effect on customer spending, but what about the six-month...
Maria Alice Maia
Feb 17, 20252 min read
Tech Pros: Don't Just Report Averages, Show the Dynamic Impact of Your Changes
To every data scientist and product analyst: You launched a new feature. You ran a perfect A/B test. You found a 2% lift in engagement...
Maria Alice Maia
Feb 10, 20253 min read
From Research to ROI: New Method - Difference-in-Differences with Variation in Treatment Timing (Goodman-Bacon Decomposition)
You launched your new customer loyalty program in the Americas in Year 1 and in Europe in Year 2. You run a standard...
Maria Alice Maia
Jan 27, 20252 min read
From Research to ROI: New Method: Regression Discontinuity in Time (RDiT)
A new regulation forced you to change your product's packaging on January 1st. Sales dropped 5%. Do you blame the new design, or do you...
Maria Alice Maia
Jan 20, 20253 min read
Managers: When to Ask for an RD (Regression Discontinuity) Analysis, and When It's Just 'Tech-for-Tech' Overkill
Your data science team just proposed a "Regression Discontinuity Design" to analyze your new sales program. It sounds impressive. It...
Maria Alice Maia
Jan 13, 20253 min read
Core Concept: Difference-in-Differences (DiD) - Basic Setup & Parallel Trends Assumption
Your firm rolled out a new project management tool in the Strategy department. You compared their change in productivity to the...
Maria Alice Maia
Jan 7, 20253 min read
From Research to ROI: Case Study - Geographic Boundaries as Regression Discontinuities
You launched a bold new sales incentive program in specific cities, but not in their surrounding suburbs. A quarter later, sales in the...
Maria Alice Maia
Dec 23, 20242 min read
Research to ROI: New Method - Flexible Covariate Adjustments in Regression Discontinuity Designs.
Your team just ran a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) to measure the impact of your new scholarship program. The result is......
Maria Alice Maia
Dec 16, 20243 min read
Core Concept: Regression Discontinuity Designs (RDD) - Intuition & Sharp RDD
Your 'Gold Tier' loyalty program is full of high-spending customers. Did the program make them high-spenders, or did you just give perks...
Maria Alice Maia
Dec 9, 20242 min read
Your Toughest Data Questions Answered: Live Session on Selection on Observables & RDD Basics.
Over the last few weeks, we've assembled a powerful toolkit for causal inference from observational data: Covariate Adjustment,...
Maria Alice Maia
Dec 2, 20242 min read
Core Concept: Forbidden Projection - A Critical Pitfall in Covariate Adjustment
To measure the ROI of your new leadership training, you controlled for employee morale. It seems smart. It seems rigorous. But what if I...
Maria Alice Maia
Nov 25, 20242 min read
From Research to ROI: New Method: Doubly Robust Estimation - Combining Strengths
Your team needs to know if the new digital invoicing system is truly making them more efficient. You have two standard ways to measure...
Maria Alice Maia
Nov 18, 20242 min read
Core Concept: Outcome Regression for Causal Inference
Your ad campaign "lifted" sales by 10%. Are you sure it was the campaign? Or was it just... November? This is one of the most common...
Maria Alice Maia
Nov 11, 20242 min read
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