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Maria Alice Maia
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Beyond the Hype: A Leader's Checklist for AI Trustworthiness
You just invested millions in a new country-wide sales program. The initial data says it's working… on average. But what if that...
Maria Alice Maia
Sep 173 min read
The New Science of Prompting: How to Speak the Language of AI
Your new loyalty program is a roaring success… or is it? You set a threshold: spend over €100/month and get a 10% discount. A quick...
Maria Alice Maia
Sep 153 min read
Research to ROI | Beyond A/B Tests: A Causal Method to Finally Measure the True ROI of Your Training Programs
You just spent $2 million on a new sales training program. The team that took the course showed a 15% lift in performance six months...
Maria Alice Maia
Sep 33 min read
New Method: Calibrating Chaos: A New Playbook for Modeling Entire Digital Economies | Bayesian Calibration of large-scale ecosystem models
Your company is flying blind, and your big data model is the blindfold. A major music streaming service is facing a crisis. Their most...
Maria Alice Maia
Aug 184 min read
Causal ML Unpacked: Your Questions on Bringing Rigor to AI
Your ML model is telling you a beautiful story. The problem? It's probably fiction. You have a model that predicts customer churn with...
Maria Alice Maia
Jul 72 min read
New Method: Causal Inference with Machine Learning (Advanced Topics)
Stop Asking "Did It Work?" Start Asking "WHO Did It Work For?" I see it constantly. Companies spend millions on a new training program, a...
Maria Alice Maia
Jun 303 min read
New Method: Using Multiple Outcomes (TMO) to Adjust Standard Errors for Spatial Correlation
Are You Confident in Your Data? Or Just Dangerously Wrong? Imagine you’re a leader at a major retail chain. You’ve just rolled out a new...
Maria Alice Maia
Jun 234 min read
A New Touchpoint and Next Steps for our Data Science Insights
Nine months ago, I started this project with a simple, urgent mission: to fix how we use data in business. We began with a deep dive into...
Maria Alice Maia
Apr 72 min read
Synthetic Controls & Beyond: Your Questions on Single-Case Causal Inference
The response to last week's post on the Synthetic Control Method was incredible. The questions flooding my inbox and past week's...
Maria Alice Maia
Mar 313 min read
Expanding the Causal Toolkit | New Method: Synthetic Control Method (SCM) - Feasibility & Requirements
What was the ROI of that massive Olympics ad campaign? Or the real impact of your new flagship store? When you make a huge, one-of-a-kind...
Maria Alice Maia
Mar 243 min read
Revisiting Randomized Experiments: A Comparison Point
Everyone loves to call Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) the “gold standard” for measuring impact. But is the gold standard always the...
Maria Alice Maia
Mar 173 min read
Case Study: Conditional Cash Transfers & Children's Outcomes using an RCT
You’re spending millions on programs, but can you prove they actually work? I’m not talking about pretty dashboards showing a “before...
Maria Alice Maia
Mar 103 min read
From Research to ROI: New Topic - Pre-Analysis Plans (PAPs) & Credibility in Causal Inference
Your consulting team just delivered a brilliant, data-driven insight that will change your strategy. But did they find the truth, or did...
Maria Alice Maia
Mar 32 min read
From Research to ROI: New Method -Longitudinal Data and the Estimation of Dynamic Treatment Effects
Your new loyalty program launched six months ago. You know the one-month effect on customer spending, but what about the six-month...
Maria Alice Maia
Feb 172 min read
Tech Pros: Don't Just Report Averages, Show the Dynamic Impact of Your Changes
To every data scientist and product analyst: You launched a new feature. You ran a perfect A/B test. You found a 2% lift in engagement...
Maria Alice Maia
Feb 103 min read
From Research to ROI: New Method - Difference-in-Differences with Variation in Treatment Timing (Goodman-Bacon Decomposition)
You launched your new customer loyalty program in the Americas in Year 1 and in Europe in Year 2. You run a standard...
Maria Alice Maia
Jan 272 min read
From Research to ROI: New Method: Regression Discontinuity in Time (RDiT)
A new regulation forced you to change your product's packaging on January 1st. Sales dropped 5%. Do you blame the new design, or do you...
Maria Alice Maia
Jan 203 min read
Managers: When to Ask for an RD (Regression Discontinuity) Analysis, and When It's Just 'Tech-for-Tech' Overkill
Your data science team just proposed a "Regression Discontinuity Design" to analyze your new sales program. It sounds impressive. It...
Maria Alice Maia
Jan 133 min read
Core Concept: Difference-in-Differences (DiD) - Basic Setup & Parallel Trends Assumption
Your firm rolled out a new project management tool in the Strategy department. You compared their change in productivity to the...
Maria Alice Maia
Jan 73 min read
Research to ROI: New Method - Flexible Covariate Adjustments in Regression Discontinuity Designs.
Your team just ran a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) to measure the impact of your new scholarship program. The result is......
Maria Alice Maia
Dec 16, 20243 min read
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