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Maria Alice Maia
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Deconstructing Complexity: How Kernel Regression Reveals the Simple Truth in Over-Hyped Models
That 'sophisticated AI' your team built to predict employee turnover? It might be an illusion. A very expensive, beautifully back-tested...

Maria Alice Maia
Aug 273 min read


New Method: Calibrating Chaos: A New Playbook for Modeling Entire Digital Economies | Bayesian Calibration of large-scale ecosystem models
Your company is flying blind, and your big data model is the blindfold. A major music streaming service is facing a crisis. Their most...

Maria Alice Maia
Aug 184 min read


Beyond the Highest Bid: What's Behind the Conflict Between Auction Theory and AI-Led Ad Auctions
Your platform’s revenue is strong, but your users are slowly dying inside. Imagine a large marketplace platform. Quarter after quarter,...

Maria Alice Maia
Aug 113 min read


Beyond "Maybe": A Framework for Statistically Guaranteed LLM Outputs | Are you using probabilistic models as deterministic oracles?
Your LLM just cost you a seven-figure fine. It confidently misclassified a critical customer complaint as a simple inquiry, and you had...

Maria Alice Maia
Aug 73 min read


You asked to be forgotten. We deleted your data. But did our AI really forget you?
This is not a philosophical question. It’s a ticking time bomb of liability and broken trust that most companies are sitting on. There’s...

Maria Alice Maia
Aug 13 min read


New Method | Your Recommendation Engine is Lying to You: Machine Learning Matrix Completion & Recommender Systems
Let's be brutally honest. Most corporate recommendation engines are stuck in kindergarten. They operate on a laughably simple logic: "You...

Maria Alice Maia
Jul 282 min read


Causal ML Unpacked: Your Questions on Bringing Rigor to AI
Your ML model is telling you a beautiful story. The problem? It's probably fiction. You have a model that predicts customer churn with...

Maria Alice Maia
Jul 72 min read


Research to ROI: New Method - Flexible Covariate Adjustments in Regression Discontinuity Designs.
Your team just ran a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) to measure the impact of your new scholarship program. The result is......

Maria Alice Maia
Dec 16, 20243 min read


New Method: Machine Learning Methods for Causal Inference (General Overview)
Your marketing ML model is brilliant at predicting who will buy. But does it actually know why?
There’s a dangerous gap between prediction and causation, and many companies are falling into it, armed with the most advanced machine learning tools. They're using a Ferrari to drive straight into a wall.
This is one of the most insidious forms of “Doing Data Wrong”: using powerful predictive models to make causal decisions, like where to allocate your marketing budget.

Maria Alice Maia
Aug 5, 20243 min read
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